‘Very Big Day for One Nation’: Pauline Hanson Professionalises Party as Polls Deliver Fresh Blow to Labor. u1
The Realignment of Australian Politics: Inside One Nation’s Corporate Upgrade and Electoral Surge
In what political analysts are describing as a landmark moment in modern Australian political history, a nationwide RedBridge Group and Accent Research poll has recorded Pauline Hanson’s One Nation taking the lead in primary vote support. The survey placed One Nation at 31 percent of the national primary vote, surging ahead of the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) at 29 percent, the Liberal-National Coalition at 22 percent, and the Australian Greens dropping sharply to 10 percent.
NATIONAL PRIMARY VOTE (REDBRIDGE/ACCENT POLL)
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ONE NATION: 31% █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ │
│ LABOR (ALP): 29% ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ │
│ COALITION: 22% ████████████████████████████████████████████ │
│ GREENS: 10% ██████████████████████ │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
While preference-flow modeling suggests Labor could still theoretically hold competitive ground under traditional two-candidate-preferred scenarios depending on how Liberal preferences distribute, the raw primary numbers reflect a profound erosion of Labor’s electoral buffer built during the 2025 federal election.
For the Albanese Government, the polling numbers serve as a stark warning. Escalating frustration over cost-of-living pressures, interest rates, housing affordability, record immigration intakes, and rising crime concerns has translated into sustained support for a party long dismissed by major party strategists as a transient protest vote. For One Nation, the figures represent the culmination of a multi-year strategy to reposition itself as a dominant political force.
DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN: ONE NATION VS LABOR
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ MILLENNIALS (Aged 30–45) │
│ • One Nation: 30% │
│ • Labor: 28% │
│ • Greens: 18% │
│ • Coalition: 16% │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ GENERATION Z (Aged 18–29) │
│ • Labor: 35% │
│ • Greens: 27% │
│ • Coalition: 18% │
│ • One Nation: 10% │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Organisational Restructure: Institutionalizing the Machine
Parallel to its poll surge, One Nation executed a major internal restructuring designed to transform its party apparatus into a permanent, highly professionalized campaign machine.
James Ashby, Senator Pauline Hanson’s long-serving chief of staff and widely recognized as one of the country’s most formidable political tacticians, has stepped into the newly created role of National Party Director. In this capacity, Ashby assumes direct oversight of national campaign strategy, state-branch coordination, fundraising, and candidate deployment.
ONE NATION EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP RESTRUCTURE
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ SENATOR PAULINE HANSON │
│ (Federal Leader) │
└───────────────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│
┌───────────────────────┴───────────────────────┐
▼ ▼
┌───────────────────────┐ ┌───────────────────────┐
│ JAMES ASHBY │ │ CHRIS TAYLOR │
│ National Party Director│ │ Chief of Staff │
├───────────────────────┤ ├───────────────────────┤
│ • Campaign Strategy │ │ • Policy Frameworks │
│ • State Logistics │ │ • Canberra Liaison │
│ • Candidate Screening │ │ • Media Strategy │
└───────────────────────┘ └───────────────────────┘
Stepping into Ashby’s former role as Chief of Staff is Chris Taylor, a seasoned Canberra operator. Taylor brings significant establishment credentials to One Nation, having previously served as Chief of Policy at the Australian Banking Association and as a senior policy adviser inside Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s Coalition government.
The recruitment of high-level establishment talent underscores a structural pivot: One Nation is actively absorbing mainstream political expertise to support a broader parliamentary expansion across multiple state and federal jurisdictions.
The Victorian Assault: Pickering and the Slate
With Victoria’s state election set for November 28, One Nation formally launched its Victorian campaign in Melbourne. Senator Hanson unveiled former Australian Army combat engineer and One Nation Victorian State President Warren Pickering as the party’s state leader and lead candidate for the Legislative Council in the Eastern Victoria Region.
Pickering, a 43-year-old Gippsland-born veteran who served a decade in the military with combat deployments to the Middle East, transitions into the leadership role following a background in bricklaying, commercial construction, and regional mining.
ONE NATION VICTORIAN UPPER HOUSE LEAD TICKET SLATE
┌─────────────────────────┬─────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────┐
│ Candidate Name │ Electoral Region │ Professional Background │
├─────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┤
│ Warren Pickering │ Eastern Victoria │ Combat Engineer / Veteran │
│ Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell │ Northern Victoria │ Sitting MP / Agriculture │
│ Colleen Harkin │ Southern Metropolitan │ Education Analyst (IPA) │
│ Chris Burson │ Western Victoria │ Geelong City Councillor │
│ Aaron Sanford │ Northern Metropolitan │ Legal Practitioner │
│ Natalie Adams │ South-Eastern Metropolitan │ Office Manager │
│ Fiona Lopez │ Western Metropolitan │ HR Executive │
│ Mark Nicholson │ North-Eastern Metropolitan │ Company Director │
└─────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┘
Hanson had originally courted former Northern Territory Chief Minister Adam Giles to lead the Victorian ticket, but after Giles declined, the party moved quickly to rally behind Pickering.
The initial slate of candidates reflects a mix of traditional working-class candidates and former Liberal Party affiliates, including Colleen Harkin, a former member of the Victorian Liberal Party’s administrative committee who currently serves as a researcher at the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA). Sitting Northern Victoria MP Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell—who became One Nation’s first elected representative in the Victorian Parliament—retains her place on the ticket.
Media Blackouts and Anti-Establishment Rhetoric
The campaign launch made headlines when Hanson enforced a strict media ban against journalists representing the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), The Guardian, and The Age. Banning those outlets from the press conference venue, Hanson accused mainstream media organizations of systemic bias, selective reporting, and unfair editorial treatment compared to the major political parties.
THE MEDIA ACCESS CONTROVERSY
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ EXCLUDED OUTLETS │
│ • Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) │
│ • The Guardian Australia │
│ • The Age (Nine Entertainment) │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ HANSON'S STATED RATIONALE │
│ "We are not going to stand by and allow media outlets to misrepresent our platform, │
│ edit our responses, or apply standards they never enforce on Labor or the Liberals." │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
The media ban drew sharp pushback from press freedom advocates, but received public backing from major industrialist Gina Rinehart—a prominent critic of public broadcasting editorial policy—and resonated strongly with One Nation’s core voter base.
Core Campaign Platforms: Crime, Inflation, and Infrastructure
Policy-wise, Hanson and Pickering focused heavily on Victoria’s public safety concerns, law-and-order statistics, and cost-of-living challenges. Pointing to recent high-profile incidents of youth offending, aggravated home burglaries, carjackings, and the fatal stabbing of a Melbourne shopkeeper, One Nation accused both the Allan Labor Government and the Liberal-National Opposition of failing to protect suburban communities.
ONE NATION VICTORIAN POLICY PRIORITIES
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ 1. HARDLINE LAW & ORDER │
│ • Mandatory minimum sentencing for repeat youth offenders and bail reform. │
│ │
│ 2. FISCAL RESTRAINT │
│ • Capping state infrastructure debt and rolling back tax burdens on small business. │
│ │
│ 3. INFRASTRUCTURE & ENERGY │
│ • Opposing renewable energy mandates; prioritizing regional road networks. │
│ │
│ 4. INSTITUTIONAL REFORM │
│ • Abolishing the Victorian Treaty process and First Peoples' Assembly. │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Beyond crime, One Nation’s platform targets Victoria’s state debt, opposition to state-based Treaty negotiations, and rising energy costs, aiming to attract working-class Labor voters and disillusioned regional conservatives.
“My Professional Perspective”
1. The Millennial Realignment: The Educational Divide
The headline finding from the RedBridge data—One Nation capturing 31 percent of the primary vote—is startling, but the underlying demographic breakdown is even more revealing.
For decades, Australian political consensus held that younger generations—specifically Millennials—would remain naturally aligned with center-left parties like Labor and the Greens as they aged. The RedBridge figures challenge that assumption:
THE MILLENNIAL ELECTORAL BREAKSPLIT (30–45 AGE BRACKET)
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ONE NATION: 30% ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ │
│ LABOR: 28% █████████████████████████████████████████████████ │
│ GREENS: 18% ██████████████████████████████ │
│ COALITION: 16% █████████████████████████ │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Among Millennials aged 30 to 45, One Nation leads all political parties at 30 percent, outpolling Labor (28%), the Greens (18%), and the Coalition (16%). Conversely, among Generation Z (ages 18 to 29), One Nation drops to just 10 percent, while Labor (35%) and the Greens (27%) retain strong majorities.
This divergence points to a growing educational and economic divide:
THE DUAL-TRACK MILLENNIAL EXPERIENCE
┌─────────────────────────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DEGREE-HOLDING METROPOLITAN MILLENNIALS │ NON-DEGREE WORKING-CLASS MILLENNIALS │
├─────────────────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ • Shielded by higher median earnings │ • Exposed to high inflation & rent spikes │
│ • Gravitate toward Greens / Labor │ • Feeling priced out of the housing market │
│ • Focus on social / environmental issues│ • Drawn to One Nation's economic populism │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Millennials in their mid-30s to early 40s are bearing the brunt of the cost-of-living squeeze. They are struggling with mortgage rate increases, surging rents, childcare costs, and real wage stagnation. For working-class Millennials without tertiary degrees, traditional party narratives no longer resonate. One Nation has capitalized on this frustration, offering an outlet for economic anxiety and institutional distrust.
2. The Professionalization of Anti-Establishment Politics
The transfer of James Ashby to National Party Director and the appointment of Chris Taylor as Chief of Staff mark a clear shift in how One Nation operates.
Historically, minor right-wing parties in Australia suffered from organizational instability, candidate vetting failures, and campaign disorganization. By hiring Chris Taylor—a former senior adviser to Prime Minister Scott Morrison and banking executive—One Nation is building a more structured, disciplined political apparatus:
THE PROFESSIONALIZATION PIPELINE
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ FORMER MODEL (1990s - 2010s) │ MODERN MODEL (2026 Onward) │
├─────────────────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ • Grassroots, ad-hoc campaigning │ • Centralized strategy under James Ashby │
│ • Frequent candidate vetting lapses │ • Corporate policy expertise via Chris Taylor│
│ • Reliance on media controversy │ • Targeted digital infrastructure & data │
│ • Isolated parliamentary presence │ • Multi-jurisdictional candidate slates │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────────────┘
This structural evolution changes the dynamics inside Parliament House. With Taylor managing policy frameworks and Ashby coordinating campaign logistics, One Nation is positioning itself to operate with the same institutional discipline as the major parties.
ONE NATION EXECUTIVE PROFILES
┌───────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ James Ashby (Party Director) │ • 15+ years of strategic campaign management. │
│ │ • Expert in regional messaging and media strategy. │
├───────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Chris Taylor (Chief of Staff) │ • Former Chief of Policy, Australian Banking Assoc.│
│ │ • Former Senior Policy Adviser to PM Scott Morrison│
└───────────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
3. The Victorian Strategy: Infiltrating the Coalition Base
In Victoria, One Nation’s candidate selections highlight a clear strategy: targeting voters frustrated with both major parties.
VICTORIAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ ALLAN LABOR GOVERNMENT │
│ • Facing budget pressures, high debt, and rising public safety concerns. │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ LIBERAL-NATIONAL OPPOSITION │
│ • Struggling to consolidate conservative support in outer-suburban corridors. │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ ONE NATION'S OPPORTUNITY WINDOW │
│ • Fielding candidates like Warren Pickering and Colleen Harkin to capture conservative │
│ and working-class voters disillusioned with the establishment choices. │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
Selecting Warren Pickering—an army combat engineer and blue-collar worker—provides One Nation with a grounded state leader. Adding Colleen Harkin (former Liberal administrative committee member and IPA researcher) gives the party policy credibility on economic issues.
VICTORIAN VOTER DISILLUSIONMENT MATRIX
┌───────────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Disillusioned Labor Voters │ Squeezed by inflation, energy costs, and crime; │
│ │ receptive to One Nation's law-and-order platform. │
├───────────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Disaffected Liberal Voters │ Seeking a firmer conservative stance on fiscal │
│ │ and social policy; attracted to One Nation's slate.│
└───────────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
4. The Media Strategy: Circumventing Traditional Press
The press conference media ban targeting the ABC, The Guardian, and The Age was a calculated political move.
THE DIRECT-TO-VOTER MEDIA ENGINE
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ TRADITIONAL MEDIA FILTER (Bypassed) │ DIRECT-TO-VOTER PLATFORMS (Utilized) │
├─────────────────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ • ABC News │ • Direct Social Media Broadcasts │
│ • The Guardian Australia │ • Regional Radio Networks (TRFM, 3AW) │
│ • The Age / Sydney Morning Herald │ • Alternative Media Outlets & Podcasts │
└─────────────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────────────┘
By shutting out legacy outlets, One Nation achieves two goals:
-
Reinforces Anti-Establishment Credentials: Demonstrates to its base that it refuses to play by the traditional political rules.
-
Controls the Narrative: Bypasses investigative questioning, delivering its message directly through digital channels and regional radio.
Public backing from prominent figures like Gina Rinehart further solidifies One Nation’s position, giving it financial and political backing to bypass traditional media channels.
5. Unanswered Questions: Potential Vulnerabilities Ahead
Despite its strong polling and organizational upgrades, several key challenges remain for One Nation:
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ CRITICAL UNANSWERED QUESTIONS │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 1. PREFERENCE DYNAMICS │
│ Will high primary votes translate into parliamentary seats under Australia's │
│ preferential voting system if major parties direct preferences away from them? │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 2. LOWER HOUSE PENETRATION │
│ Can One Nation win single-member Legislative Assembly seats in Victoria, or will │
│ its victories remain confined to proportional Upper House contests? │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ 3. VETTING & DISCIPLINE │
│ Can a rapidly expanding candidate slate maintain operational discipline under │
│ intense media scrutiny during a state election campaign? │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘The End of the Two-Party Monopoly
The recent surge in polling and structural upgrades mark a key moment for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. No longer just a fringe movement, the party has built an organized, well-funded political operation capable of challenging the major parties.
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ THE TRANSFORMATIONAL ARC OF ONE NATION │
├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ PHASE 1: THE PROTEST ERA (1990s) │
│ • Single-issue campaigns driven by regional frustration and populist rhetoric. │
│ │
│ PHASE 2: THE PARLIAMENTARY CROSSBENCH (2010s) │
│ • Holding key Senate balances of power while navigating internal instability. │
│ │
│ PHASE 3: THE INSTITUTIONAL CONTENDER (2026 Onward) │
│ • Leading national primary polls, hiring top policy advisers, and expanding across │
│ state and federal jurisdictions. │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
For the Albanese Government and the Liberal-National Coalition, the rise of One Nation highlights deep voter dissatisfaction across Australia. As economic pressures mount and trust in traditional institutions declines, voters are looking for alternatives.
With the Victorian state election approaching, Australian politics faces a crucial question:
Is One Nation’s poll surge a temporary expression of voter frustration, or does it signal a lasting shift toward a multi-party system in Australian democracy?
For further background on these developments, watch Pauline Hanson launches One Nation’s Victorian election campaign | 9 News Australia, which covers the Melbourne press conference, candidate announcements, and campaign platform.
