Meet One Nation’s Victorian team: a sitting MP, combat engineer, police negotiator and the man who animates Pauline Hanson. u1
The Upper House Wedge: Inside One Nation’s Strategic Push Across Victoria
In Australian state politics, headlines and public focus naturally gravitate toward the Legislative Assembly—the lower house where premiers are crowned, governments are formed, and single-member districts are won or lost in winner-take-all contests.
Yet beneath the surface of the parliamentary architecture lies the true engine of legislative control: the 40-seat Legislative Council. It is a chamber that forms no executive government, but holds the constitutional authority to pass, amend, or block the entire agenda of whichever administration occupies the Treasury benches.
In mid-2026, One Nation finalized the core of its Victorian state ticket, unveiling candidates across seven of the state’s eight upper house regions alongside a targeted lower house bid by its state president, Warren Pickering.
This move reflects a tactical calculation in contemporary minor-party campaigning: bypassing high-barrier single-member electorates to assemble a pivotal crossbench voting bloc in the upper house.
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| VICTORIAN BICAMERAL STRUCTURE AT A GLANCE |
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| 1. The Legislative Assembly (Lower House) |
| • 88 single-member electorates (Districts). |
| • Requires 45 seats to secure an absolute majority and form government. |
| • Electoral format: Single-member preferential voting (Winner-takes-all). |
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| 2. The Legislative Council (Upper House) |
| • 40 seats distributed across 8 multi-member regions (5 members per region). |
| • Requires 21 votes to pass or block government legislation. |
| • Electoral format: Multi-member proportional representation. |
| • Effective quota: Approximately 16.7% of the regional vote to guarantee election. |
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+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+The Ticket Structure: Regions Over Districts
The strategy behind One Nation’s Victorian candidate slate focuses heavily on the mathematics of the upper house ballot paper.
In a lower house district, a candidate must outpoll all rivals across preferential counts to secure the single seat. In contrast, each of Victoria’s eight Legislative Council regions returns five members concurrently under a proportional quota system. Securing roughly 16.7% (one in six votes) guarantees a seat, providing minor parties a clearer pathway to parliamentary representation than contesting traditional lower house strongholds.
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| ONE NATION VICTORIAN CANDIDATE LINEUP |
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| Region / Electorate | Geographical Reach / Key Localities | Lead Candidate |
|------------------------------+---------------------------------------+----------------------------|
| Pakenham (Lower House) | Outer south-eastern growth corridor | Warren Pickering (Pres.) |
| Eastern Victoria (Upper) | Gippsland, Latrobe Valley, Mornington | *No lead announced* |
| North-Eastern Metropolitan | Yarra corridor, Glen Waverley, Eltham | Natalie Adams |
| Northern Metropolitan | Brunswick, Northcote, Richmond, City | Mark Nicholson |
| Northern Victoria | Shepparton, Bendigo, Mildura, Wodonga | Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell (Inc.) |
| South-Eastern Metropolitan | Frankston, Cranbourne, Berwick | Colleen Harkin |
| Southern Metropolitan | Port Melbourne, Mentone, Kew, Toorak | Aaron Sanford |
| Western Metropolitan | Sunbury, Williamstown, Werribee | Fiona Lopez |
| Western Victoria | Ballarat, Greater Geelong, Melton | Chris Burson |
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While party leader Pauline Hanson indicated that candidates may contest up to 76 of the state’s 88 lower house electorates, the primary organizational weight is concentrated in the multi-member regions.
Candidate Profiles and Backgrounds
The announced slate brings together candidates from diverse professional sectors, ranging from defense and law enforcement to media production and regional agriculture:
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Warren Pickering (Pakenham / State President): Raised on farmland in Gippsland, Pickering worked in the construction sector as a bricklayer before serving a decade as an Army combat engineer with overseas instructional deployments. After working in the resources sector and advising the party at the state level, he assumed leadership of the Victorian organizational apparatus, focusing on energy costs, fiscal accountability, and frontline policing.
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Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell (Northern Victoria): The sole sitting One Nation MP in the Victorian Parliament, Tyrrell was elected in 2022 and previously operated a dairy farm for 16 years. Her parliamentary focus has centered on regional water allocations under the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, energy reliability, road funding, and parliamentary oversight mechanisms.
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Mark Nicholson (Northern Metropolitan): A former criminal defense lawyer who co-founded Stepmates Studios, Nicholson writes, produces, and voices the animated political satire series Please Explain. His platform emphasizes criminal justice reform and public accountability across inner-city Melbourne.
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Chris Burson (Western Victoria): An Army veteran who served in combat engineering and army aviation during overseas deployments, Burson subsequently spent over a decade in Victoria Police, working in general duties, the Public Order Response Team, and the Critical Incident Response Team as a tactical operator and negotiator. His focus centers on emergency services funding and community safety.
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Natalie Adams (North-Eastern Metropolitan): A small business operator and employer in Melbourne’s northeast, Adams focuses on regulatory burdens on family enterprises, vocational trade pathways, and foundational literacy and numeracy standards in school curricula.
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Colleen Harkin (South-Eastern Metropolitan): A former educator, school policy consultant, and political staffer with a background in the Liberal Party, Harkin campaigns on reducing energy costs for manufacturing, curriculum standards, and educational choice frameworks.
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Aaron Sanford (Southern Metropolitan): A practicing criminal lawyer and court advocate, Sanford places demographic policy and urban infrastructure pressures at the center of his campaign across Melbourne’s inner-south.
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Fiona Lopez (Western Metropolitan): A human resources professional based in Melbourne’s western suburbs, Lopez focuses on vocational skills shortages, aged care accessibility, and youth crime diversion programs.
2. My Professional Perspective
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MY PROFESSIONAL PERSPECTIVE
"A deeper side of the story that many people have never considered."
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Covering Westminster parliamentary systems over three decades reveals an enduring reality: governments frequently win the lower house on grand policy mandates, only to find the actual power to govern dictated by a handful of crossbench senators or upper house members holding the balance of power.
When looking at the dynamics of Victoria’s legislative landscape, several underlying structural factors define this election strategy.
THE UPPER HOUSE LEVERAGE CYCLE
Multi-Member Regional Quota Targeted Crossbench Seats Balance of Power Leverage
(~16.7% Electoral Threshold) (Winning 2 to 4 Upper Seats) (Amend, Negotiate, or Block)
│ │ │
▼ ▼ ▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ THE CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATIVE PIPELINE │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│
▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ IMPACT ON EXECUTIVE GOVERNANCE & POLICY │
│ • Mandatory Compromise on Supply & Budgets • Inquiries & Committee Oversight │
│ • Leverage on Infrastructure & Planning • Scrutiny of Statutory Appointments │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
1. The Power of the 21st Vote
In the Victorian Legislative Council, passing any statute, regulation, or budgetary supply measure requires 21 votes. Major parties rarely secure an outright majority in the upper house on their own primary vote.
Consequently, a minor party does not need to form government or win lower house seats to wield substantial influence. Securing a reliable bloc of crossbench votes transforms a minor party into a necessary negotiating partner for major government initiatives, granting them line-by-line scrutiny and amendment rights over state legislation.
2. Group Voting Tickets vs. Proportional Reality
Victoria has historically been one of the few jurisdictions to retain the Group Voting Ticket (GVT) system for upper house elections, where parties could register preference swap agreements that occasionally elected candidates from fractional primary shares.
As parliamentary debates continue around electoral reform and preference transparency, parties are forced to build authentic, geographically dispersed primary votes. The slate assembled across outer-metropolitan and regional Victoria targets communities where local grievances—such as road maintenance, infrastructure bottlenecks, water policy, and energy grid transitions—create receptive audiences for alternative representation.
3. The Regional and Outer-Suburban Wedge
The candidate distribution illustrates the classic geographic divide in state governance:
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The Resource & Farming Perimeter: In regions like Northern and Western Victoria, primary concerns center on agricultural water rights, land access for transmission lines, and road funding.
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The Outer Growth Corridors: In districts like Pakenham, Melton, and Werribee, families face high mortgage pressures, long commutes, and strained local hospital networks.
By running candidates rooted in local industries and essential services (agriculture, defense, small business, and policing), minor parties position themselves not as traditional political insiders, but as direct delegates of regional and suburban communities.
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| THE STRATEGIC COMPARISON |
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| Dimension | Lower House Contest (Assembly) | Upper House Contest (Council) |
|-----------------------------+-----------------------------------+---------------------------------|
| Primary Objective | Form executive government. | Review, amend, or block bills. |
| Threshold for Success | 50%+ after preferences (1st place)| ~16.7% quota per region. |
| Target Electorate | Highly localized single district. | Broad 11-district mega-region. |
| Post-Election Leverage | Backbencher in party machine. | Balance-of-power vote holder. |
+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+The composition of the Victorian upper house represents one of the most critical checks and balances in state governance. While the contest for the premier’s office will dominate evening television broadcasts, the members elected to the Legislative Council will determine which bills become law and which are turned away at the door.
As political parties roll out their candidate tickets and campaign platforms, Victorian voters across city suburbs, regional hubs, and agricultural heartlands will ultimately decide the balance of power that shapes the state’s legislative future.
Civic & Electoral Resources
To access official, non-partisan resources regarding Victorian electoral processes, candidate enrollments, district boundaries, and parliamentary operations, please refer to the following authorized portals:
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Electoral Rolls & Voting Information: Check enrolment details, look up state electoral boundaries, and review voter resources via the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).
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Parliamentary Process & Bicameral Operations: Explore how legislation is introduced, reviewed, and debated across both chambers through the Parliament of Victoria System of Government Overview.
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Bills & Legislative Records: Track the status of active bills, committee inquiries, and enacted statutes at the official Victorian Legislation Directory.
In a bicameral parliament where the lower house creates the government but the upper house holds the power to pass or block legislation, how will the balance of power on the crossbench redefine the boundaries of political negotiation in Victoria?
