One Nation opened its Canning branch in Andrew Hastie’s home town of Mandurah last Saturday. u1
Siege in the Peel: Inside the Right-Wing Civil War Threatening Andrew Hastie’s Stronghold
On a Saturday afternoon in the coastal city of Mandurah, south of Perth, roughly one hundred political activists packed into the function room of The Bridge Garden Bar and Restaurant on Pinjarra Road. Outside, the winter tide slipped through the Peel Inlet; inside, the Western Australian branch of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation formally launched its new base in the federal division of Canning.
The geographic choice was an intentional political strike. Canning is the home electorate of Shadow Minister for Industry and Sovereign Capability Andrew Hastie—a former Special Air Service (SAS) captain, prominent conservative voice, and one of the few federal Liberals in Western Australia to withstand successive electoral sweeps.
Four days before the branch opening, Hastie addressed the growing pressure on his political perimeter with fatalistic candor during a national broadcast:
“Everyone who comes into this job has to have a sense of their political mortality, and if this is the end, this is the end. You do your best, and it’s up to the Australian people.”
The showdown in the Peel region is more than a localized turf war. It is a critical fault line in modern Australian conservatism: a direct clash between an incumbent Coalition frontbencher defending traditional center-right ground and an insurgent populist movement mobilizing to disrupt the established party system.
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| THE BATTLE FOR CANNING AT A GLANCE |
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| 1. Electorate Profile: Division of Canning (WA) |
| • Geography: Outer-metropolitan Perth corridor to Mandurah and the Peel Region |
| • Enrolled Electors: ~123,000 registered voters |
| • Incumbent: Hon. Andrew Hastie MP (Liberal Party; held seat since 2015 by-election) |
| |
| 2. The 2025 General Election Breakdown (Official AEC Count) |
| • Andrew Hastie (Liberal): 42.52% primary (+0.95% swing) |
| • Jarrad Goold (Labor): 29.90% primary (-5.08% swing) |
| • Fernando Bove (One Nation): 11.41% primary (+6.79% swing) |
| • Jordan Cahill (Greens): 8.91% primary (+0.59% swing) |
| • Final 2CP Margin: 56.55% Liberal vs. 43.45% Labor (+5.35% swing) |
| |
| 3. Imminent Test Case: Secret Harbour State By-Election |
| • Date: Saturday, 29 August 2026 |
| • Context: Vacated by retiring Labor minister Paul Papalia (held on 11.5% margin) |
| • Significance: Suburbs sit almost entirely inside the federal boundaries of Canning |
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+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+The Mandurah Incursion and the Ground Game
The branch opening in Mandurah marked the formalization of an aggressive expansion campaign by One Nation across Western Australia.
While the official One Nation state portal had previously listed regional branches across Forrest, Brand, and Durack, the establishment of the Canning branch brought the party’s field operations directly into Hastie’s political base. Party director James Ashby confirmed that One Nation has consolidated over 430 paid, registered members within Canning alone, designating the seat alongside Forrest, Hasluck, and Pearce as key Western Australian targets.
The launch was headlined by the party’s WA state leader, Hon. Rod Caddies MLC, alongside state parliamentary colleagues, federal senators, and local by-election candidate Luke Herdegen.
Addressing local media, Caddies rejected suggestions that Hastie was invulnerable:
“You would be a fool not to be worried with the polling that’s been done and the support we’re getting on the streets. One Nation’s momentum is massive.”
Caddies asserted that the party’s rising support across Mandurah and the southwestern corridor predated broader national polling gains, arguing that Canning’s demographic makeup makes it highly competitive.
Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen noted that Labor intends to run a full campaign in Canning focused on cost-of-living relief, regardless of third-party maneuvers.
CANNING 2025 PRIMARY VOTE COMPOSITION
Andrew Hastie (LIB) Jarrad Goold (ALP) Fernando Bove (PHON) Jordan Cahill (GRN)
42.52% 29.90% 11.41% 8.91%
[+0.95% Swing] [-5.08% Swing] [+6.79% Swing] [+0.59% Swing]
│ │ │ │
└─────────────────────────┴────────────┬────────────┴────────────────────────┘
│
▼
Two-Party Preferred (2CP) Outcome:
Hastie: 56.55% | Labor: 43.45%
(+5.35% Net Two-Party Swing to Liberal)
The Electoral Math: Fragility Behind the 56.5% Margin
While the headline Two-Candidate Preferred (2CP) figure of 56.55% portrays Canning as a safe Coalition stronghold, a closer examination of the underlying returns reveals notable structural vulnerabilities:
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A Modest Primary Baseline: In the 2025 federal general election, Hastie’s primary vote increased by less than one percent (+0.95% to 42.52%). The seat remained in Liberal hands primarily because Labor’s primary vote dropped 5.08% to 29.90%.
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Third-Party Acceleration: One Nation candidate Fernando Bove secured 11.41% of the primary vote—an increase of 6.79% from a standing start, significantly outpacing the party’s statewide average.
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Preference Dependencies: Hastie’s final margin was heavily augmented by disciplined preference flows from minor-party voters who placed Labor last.
Primary Vote Movements in Canning (2025 General Election)
Liberal (Hastie) [ +0.95% ]
Labor (Goold) [ -5.08% (Decline) ]
Greens (Cahill) [ +0.59% ]
One Nation (Bove) [ +6.79% (Surge) ]
The Polling Projections: Redbridge and DemosAU
The pressure on Canning aligns with seat-level modeling that emerged across winter 2026:
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The Redbridge-Accent Model: A demographic model of 6,015 respondents conducted in mid-2026 identified Canning as vulnerable to a third-party swing, alongside seats such as Lindsay, La Trobe, and Casey. A subsequent national survey by the same firm placed One Nation at 31% primary support federally, ahead of Labor (29%) and the Coalition (22%).
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The DemosAU Multi-Seat Simulation: A national study of 9,343 voters analyzed through 20,000 electoral simulations projected a fragmented parliament, with One Nation securing substantial representation (60 lower house seats modeled) while the Coalition was projected at 13 seats. In Western Australia, the model logged a five-point rise in minor-party primary support, specifically noting competitive conditions in outer-metropolitan seats like Bullwinkel, Moore, and Pearce.
The Live Testing Ground: The Secret Harbour By-Election
The demographic theories and polling models will face a concrete test on Saturday, August 29, 2026, when voters in the state district of Secret Harbour go to the polls.
Triggered by the mid-term retirement of former state minister Paul Papalia, the by-election features 16 candidates. Because the state electorate of Secret Harbour is situated almost entirely within the federal boundaries of Canning, party strategists view the contest as a bellwether for the federal division.
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| SECRET HARBOUR BY-ELECTION PROFILE |
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| District Margin: Held by Labor on an 11.5% 2CP margin (Papalia won with 46.5% primary in 2025). |
| Key Minor-Party Floor: One Nation recorded 8.4% in the district at the general state election. |
| Current Field: 16 nominated candidates on the official ballot. |
| Preference Framework: WA Liberal Party has directed its official preferences to One Nation. |
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Labor’s candidate, Georgia Tree, faces One Nation contender Luke Herdegen, a gym franchisee and former national weightlifting champion. The state campaign has centered largely on local infrastructure delivery—specifically the long-delayed Karnup railway station.
First promised by Labor in 2013, the $156 million transport project was recently recommitted with a $10 million planning allocation, leading both Premier Roger Cook and Andrew Hastie to claim credit for compelling the government to advance the project.
Legal Shadows and the Afghanistan Command Controversy
The campaign against Hastie also encompasses debates surrounding military accountability and national security litigation.
One Nation has actively campaigned on veterans’ welfare and the ongoing legal matters surrounding decorated former SAS soldier Ben Roberts-Smith. Hastie, who served as a troop commander in the SAS in Afghanistan, was a key witness during the high-profile civil defamation proceedings brought by Roberts-Smith against Nine Entertainment.
On July 30, during related defamation proceedings in the Western Australian Supreme Court involving Perth businessman Greg Poland, Hastie confirmed under oath that he had provided a recording to a journalist at Nine’s WAtoday. Roberts-Smith’s legal counsel previously questioned whether Hastie was beholden to the publisher due to shared legal representation in separate matters—an assertion Hastie categorically rejected under oath.
Tensions escalated on July 2, 2026, when the Australian Senate divided 24 to 15 to block the public release of the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force (IGADF) inquiry report into command accountability in Afghanistan.
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| SENATE DIVISION ON IGADF REPORT (2 JULY) |
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| Vote to Force Release (15) | One Nation (3), Australian Greens (10), Crossbench (2) |
|----------------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------|
| Vote to Block Release (24) | Australian Labor Party (21), Liberal Party (3 Senators Present)|
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Manager of Opposition Business Jonathon Duniam explained that the Coalition voted against releasing the document because it contained classified intelligence that could compromise ongoing investigations by the Office of the Special Investigator (OSI). However, minor-party figures criticized the vote, pointing out that the chamber voted shortly thereafter to order the production of a separate internal Defence procurement file.
2. My Professional Perspective
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MY PROFESSIONAL PERSPECTIVE
"A deeper side of the story that many people have never considered."
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Across three decades of covering elections across the United States, Britain, and Australia, I have observed that when traditional conservative parties face an insurgency from their own flank, the conflict rarely revolves around standard left-right policy differences. Instead, it becomes an existential battle over institutional legitimacy, political identity, and working-class representation.
Looking closely at the conflict unfolding in Canning, three underlying structural realities define the contest:
THE FAULT LINES OF OUTER-SUBURBAN PERTH
The Preference Tightrope The Outer-Suburban Squeeze The Military-Veterans Divide
(Coalition vs. Minor Deals) (Mortgages, Fuel, Utilities) (SAS Base & Command Scrutiny)
│ │ │
▼ ▼ ▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ THE REALIGNMENT OF THE RESOURCE-PERIMETER │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
│
▼
┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ THE BREAKDOWN OF TRADITIONAL PARTY DISCIPLINE │
│ • Direct-to-Voter Independent Movements • Exhaustion of Two-Party Safe Margins │
│ • Localized Infrastructure Friction • Strategic Weaponization of Inquiries │
└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
1. The Preference Paradox: Fighting the Hand That Feeds
The central strategic dilemma for Andrew Hastie and the modern Liberal Party is their reliance on the very voters they are fighting to contain.
In a preferential voting system, a mainstream party cannot win a suburban electorate like Canning on a 42% primary vote without capturing the overwhelming majority of secondary preference flows from minor parties.
In June, Hastie stated he would “rather be taken out in a box” than enter a formal Coalition agreement with One Nation. By August, his public rhetoric shifted toward practical electoral arithmetic, noting: “We’re in a two-party preferred system, so preferences matter… Labor receives preferences from the Greens, and I’d hope we’d receive preferences from One Nation”.
This dynamic illustrates the high-wire act of contemporary conservatism: party leaders must vigorously contest minor-party inroads to protect their primary base, while avoiding alienating the minor-party voters whose preference distributions are required to retain their seats.
2. The Outer-Metropolitan Mortgage Belt Reality
Canning is not an inner-city intellectual battleground; it is a sprawling, outer-metropolitan perimeter populated by tradespeople, resource-sector contractors, defense personnel, and young suburban families.
These communities sit on the frontline of economic pressures:
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Escalating interest rates on suburban mortgages.
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Long highway commutes requiring high fuel consumption.
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Infrastructure projects, such as the Karnup train station, that have faced planning delays across multiple administrations.
When voters in outer-metropolitan corridors feel that mainstream political parties prioritize parliamentary maneuvering over local infrastructure delivery, their loyalty shifts. In this environment, anti-establishment messaging finds receptive audiences not necessarily out of ideological fervor, but out of frustration with standard institutional delivery.
3. The Defense and Veteran Community Dynamics
Canning and the broader Peel and Rockingham regions house substantial active-duty defense personnel and military veterans, many connected to HMAS Stirling at Garden Island and the Special Air Service Regiment based at Campbell Barracks.
For years, Hastie’s military background was an unassailable political asset. However, the protracted aftermath of the Brereton Inquiry, the Roberts-Smith litigation, and parliamentary divisions over command accountability have introduced complex cross-currents within veteran communities.
When political opponents utilize unreleased defense inquiry files and veteran advocacy debates as campaign points, they turn a traditional institutional strength into an active point of local contention.
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| THE DIVERGING STRATEGIC PLAYBOOKS |
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| Strategy Axis | Incumbent Liberal Playbook | Insurgent Minor-Party Playbook |
|-----------------------------+-----------------------------------+---------------------------------|
| Economic Focus | National economic management, | Direct targeting of inflation, |
| | sovereign capability, energy caps.| immigration caps, local costs. |
|-----------------------------+-----------------------------------+---------------------------------|
| Infrastructure Narrative | Pressuring government from | Framing 13-year delays as |
| | opposition to fund Karnup rail. | chronic major-party neglect. |
|-----------------------------+-----------------------------------+---------------------------------|
| Preference Approach | Welcoming rank-and-file secondary | Leveraging preferences to force |
| | flows; rejecting formal pacts. | policy shifts or win outright. |
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3. Conclusion
The battle unfolding across the Peel inlet is a telling preview of the future of Australian electoral politics.
In Canning, the notion of a permanently safe electorate is dissolving. Voters in outer-suburban mortgage belts and coastal growth corridors are demonstrating a willingness to abandon traditional voting patterns when they feel their economic and community concerns are being overlooked.
Whether Andrew Hastie’s personal standing and parliamentary profile will preserve his hold on Canning remains a defining question for the Coalition. But as branch offices open and local campaigns intensify, one fact is undeniable: the contest for the Australian suburbs is no longer a closed two-party duopoly, but an open, unpredictable struggle for the political center.
Verified Voting & Electoral Information
For voters seeking official, non-partisan details regarding upcoming federal and state electoral processes, district boundaries, and candidate nominations, consult the following independent resources:
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Federal Electoral Boundaries & Enrolment: To verify enrolment status, explore federal boundary maps, or review historical voting data for the Division of Canning, visit the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) Division Profile.
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State By-Election Details & Polling Options: For official information regarding the Secret Harbour by-election—including candidate lists, early voting centers, postal vote applications, and boundary maps—access the Western Australian Electoral Commission (WAEC) Portal.
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Parliamentary Records & Chamber Activity: To read official committee transcripts, member speeches, and voting divisions, consult the Parliament of Australia Hansard Repository.
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State Legislative Council Proceedings: Access Western Australian parliamentary debates and member records via the Parliament of Western Australia Directory.
When the political flank of a major party fractures in its traditional suburban heartlands, can established leaders rebuild their core coalition through traditional policy platforms—or has the rise of minor parties permanently redefined the rules of parliamentary contests?
